Shooting down of a Russian fighter jet fighting armed groups
in Syria close to Turkish border areas in Latakia region by the Turkish forces doesn’t
sound like a sudden reaction to an airspace violation as it is claimed for. Who
benefit from this incident? What motives such action from a NATO member?
For the last few days, Syrian government troops and its
allies were fighting to remove the armed group bulge head into the Latakia
region threatening the main population centers. They were backed by Russian close
air support units including Su 24 frog foot and Mi-24 Helicopter gunships. For the
allies of the armed groups, losing this part of the frontline to the Syrian
government means losing an important battle in the attempt to keep Aleppo and
Idlib in anti government hands. The Aleppo and Idlib Southern flank of the
Syrian military offensive is seeing counter offensive by ISIS and AL Nusra to
prevent government forces taking Aleppo city suburbs and Idlib region into
their control. This is why preventing Syrian attempts to eliminate the bulge in
the northern Latakia frontline next to the Turkish border is important to groups
like ISIS and Al Nusra who want to keep their control over Northern Syria. Making
it difficult for the close air support to support the Syrian military operation
is one of the best ways to weaken the ongoing Syrian military campaign to free
the Northwestern front line in Latakia. Without close air support the Syrian
attempt to stabilize the Northwestern front in their campaign to secure Latakia
and to take Aleppo would be even more difficult as it will make it more
difficult to fight in the Aleppo South front against ISIS and Al Nusra.
Picture from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34907983
Tactically, Shooting down of the jet make is difficult for the Russians to help the Syrian Government t stabilize the front line in Latakia thus reducing the risk of attack in population centers in the east. This means, more resources for their goal of taking Aleppo under control and defeat Daish and Al nusra in the Aleppo south front lines. I personally think this shooting down is not a mistake but a carefully calculated move by Turkey and some of its allies to teach Russians a lesson for their meddling in the war, and also to prevent Aleppo being taken by Syrian Government. B'cos that's the best way for them to control the northern Syria to be used for their proxy war. Also loosing norther Syria to a force that is not pro turkey make it impossible for Daish to sell their oil produce in Turkey (Soon they wont be able to sell it in Iraq as the less than 100km boarder they control will be taken by the Kurd fighters.). If they loose northern Syrian boarder with Syria, it will make it very difficult to armed groups in Syria including Daish and Al Nusra to fund raise, purchase weapons and ect. A US made anti tank missile being used to destroy a parked Russian Helicopter could also shows that Turkey is not alone.
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