Who benefit and why the Russian Jet was shot down?

Shooting down of a Russian fighter jet fighting armed groups in Syria close to Turkish border areas in Latakia region by the Turkish forces doesn’t sound like a sudden reaction to an airspace violation as it is claimed for. Who benefit from this incident? What motives such action from a NATO member?

For the last few days, Syrian government troops and its allies were fighting to remove the armed group bulge head into the Latakia region threatening the main population centers. They were backed by Russian close air support units including Su 24 frog foot and Mi-24 Helicopter gunships. For the allies of the armed groups, losing this part of the frontline to the Syrian government means losing an important battle in the attempt to keep Aleppo and Idlib in anti government hands. The Aleppo and Idlib Southern flank of the Syrian military offensive is seeing counter offensive by ISIS and AL Nusra to prevent government forces taking Aleppo city suburbs and Idlib region into their control. This is why preventing Syrian attempts to eliminate the bulge in the northern Latakia frontline next to the Turkish border is important to groups like ISIS and Al Nusra who want to keep their control over Northern Syria. Making it difficult for the close air support to support the Syrian military operation is one of the best ways to weaken the ongoing Syrian military campaign to free the Northwestern front line in Latakia. Without close air support the Syrian attempt to stabilize the Northwestern front in their campaign to secure Latakia and to take Aleppo would be even more difficult as it will make it more difficult to fight in the Aleppo South front against ISIS and Al Nusra.

Picture from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34907983

Hilary, Madam war!

Elect Hilary for War! yeai, Another Georg W Bush is coming, 

What Hilary stands for: 

1. Not for women rights, other than using it to gain votes,
2. Not to control the cooperate lobby as she was created by them.
3. Not for diplomacy by peaceful means, as her doctrine is to use US military strength to go to war anywhere in the world to enforce its hegemony and compensate for diminishing status world wide.
4. Not for stability as she is for using US thuggery to control maritime trade in the oceans in Asia and take control of the resources to sustain US military industrial complex in the long run.
5. Not for a multi polar world as she is not for recognizing global south as equal partners in global politics.
6. Not for democracy as her strategy is to bomb in the name of democracy, like in Iraq and Libya. 

The last thing US needs is a political clone of the Nazi banker Bush family. 

Read this: http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/11/20/hillarys-war-whoop/

Rise of the Oppressed

Rise of the oppressed is the rise of dark skin people around the world as well as others who are oppressed by the global power structure and its white elite.

Why Sri Lanka should act as a balancing force for Maritime cooperation in the Indian Ocean

Background story.

1.     As the third-largest body of water in the world, and containing vital sea-lanes that help feed some of Asia’s largest economies, the importance of the Indian Ocean has long been obvious. However, the relative decline of US power in the region has left a void that is increasingly being filled by China and India, both eager to secure their position as major power brokers in global affairs. It’s this confluence of events and interests that is starting to make strategic developments in the region particularly interesting right now[1].

2.     Sri Lanka's strategic position makes it vital for securing major sea-lanes in the Indian Ocean. To the South, the island's coast fronts the greater Indian Ocean, and to the North it opens to the ocean's marginal seas: the Arabian Sea, Gulf of Mannar, Palk Bay and the Bay of Bengal. It sits approximately halfway between the Suez and the Strait of Malacca, the key maritime choke points to the East and West, and along routes from the Strait of Hormuz, transit for most of Asia's rising powers’ energy supplies. The island has a number of natural harbors along its coast: Colombo and Galle in the Southwest, Hambantota in the Southeast, Trincomalee in the East and Jaffna in the North. A string of islands prevents large ships from passing through Palk Bay, preventing India's Southern coast from becoming an international maritime hub and making Sri Lanka's ports a better option.[2]

3.     The current Sri Lankan strategic direction in the Indian Ocean is largely shaped by the previous governments “five-hub” growth strategy, which aims to position and build the island as a global naval, aviation, commercial, energy and knowledge center. Foreign Direct Investment was a driving factor in this growth strategy and was largely fulfilled by deep pockets of China[3]. Therefore, Sri Lanka poses to gain immensely from the improved future cooperation in the Indian Ocean.

4.     India’s defensive and offensive strategic needs and desires along with the aspirations of Japanese and US governments to manage Chinese outreach have largely driven maritime relations in the Indian Ocean. In this context Japanese Naval forces are making port calls in Colombo, Sri Lanka[4] that are of a significant importance just as Chinese Nuclear submarines’ port calls back in 2014. India, just as US naval forces and the WW-II allied naval fleet before them, considers Trincomalee[5] as key to the naval control of the greater Indian Ocean[6].  Sri Lanka has been trying to develop Trincomalee as an industrial base that can facilitate maritime trade in the Indian Ocean.

5.     Mistrust towards Indian desires and fear of a possible Indian hegemony in the Indian Ocean by neighbouring countries such as Pakistan and Sri Lanka are driving their relations with outside actors who have interests in securing supply lines in the Indian Ocean, such as China.

6.     Sri Lanka has the ability to respond, because, although India is a major regional power, the tiny island's position near the Indian coastline threatens Indian strategic interests. India fears that Sri Lanka will fall under the influence or control of a hostile power. Moreover, New Delhi is concerned that its peripheral states — Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh — could form a maritime ring around India that would constitute a substantial threat. India seeks to prevent this by interfering with Sri Lanka's internal politics. Because of Sri Lanka's internal divisions, outside intervention always involves favoring one of the island's ethnic groups over the other. This is particularly troublesome for India, which shares Sri Lanka's Tamil minority.3

7.     China’s more ambitious goal is to have countries (in the Indian Ocean) coordinate their policies to ensure that each individual country’s economic development plan feeds into a larger regional vision. That includes free trade areas, both bilaterally and regionally, as well as broad financial integration. On the financial front, Beijing wants expanded bilateral currency swap deals. Funding for the Belt and Road projects will be carried out through the new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), China’s own Silk Road Fund, and eventually through a hoped-for financing mechanism administered by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization[7]. Hambantota is built as a joint venture by the Chinese and Sri Lankan governments and is an important part of the Chinese strategy. By the time of completion of all 3 construction phases, the port will be the largest in South Asia, encompassing over 4,000 acres and with the ability to simultaneously berth 33 vessels. Together with Hambantota’s 2717 acres industrial zone, it will be the most capable port to serve the growing maritime trade in the Indian Ocean.

8.     Chinese international aid and credit lines have replaced Western nations in infrastructure development in South Asia and in the case of Sri Lanka China replaced Japan and came in with no political conditions. Chinese strategic outreach to Pakistan and Sri Lanka has been greatly successful in building infrastructure that is vital for the control of the Indian Ocean. Sri Lanka is a strong force in driving the strategic cooperative partnership between Sri Lanka and China and was the first country to back the plans for the MSR. Sri Lanka is also an important point in Chinese plans for securing their supply lines, and the deep-water ports in the country accommodate large sea traffic in the Indian Ocean.

9.     The changes in the Japanese constitution allow it to have conventional offensive military capabilities. As the US and its allies, with the support of newfound Japanese naval power, face Chinese maritime outreach to the Indian Ocean, Sri Lanka becomes an unavoidable pivot to Indian Ocean cooperation and is important for the control of its choke points as a balancing force.

10.  US Secretary of State John Kerry during his visit to Sri Lanka in May called for “an annual partnership dialogue” and identified the importance of Sri Lanka’s “strategic location near deep-water ports in India and Myanmar,” which could enable it to “serve as the fulcrum of a modern and dynamic Indo-Pacific region.” Together with Sri Lanka’s partnership and commitment to the Maritime Silk Road and its openness towards cooperation with partners outside the immediate periphery of the Indian Ocean, gives it the opportunity to act as a balancing point for different strategic interests in the Indian Ocean.

11.  Since the important presidential election in January, Sri Lanka has rapidly been drawn into Washington’s “pivot to Asia”[8] against Beijing. A series of high-level US administration and military figures made highly visible visits to Colombo to secure Sri Lanka’s participation in the USA-India-Japan axis in the Indian Ocean. Since January, Sri Lanka has shifted towards opening up to multilateral cooperation in the Indian Ocean, also involving European partners. Cooperation between Sri Lanka and EU member states during the UNHRC resolution on “Promoting reconciliation, accountability and human rights in Sri Lanka” and the visit to Sri Lanka by the Indian Prime Minister as well as the German Foreign Minister shows the recognition of Sri Lanka’s importance to the stability in the Indian Ocean.

12.  Sri Lanka’s strong partnership in the Maritime Silk Road and its newfound openness to improved cooperation with Western parties for the stability of the Indian Ocean make it an attractive opportunity for outreach and investment in maritime relations in the Indian Ocean. Its geographic position in the middle of major shipping routes and vital naval infrastructure make it a balancing force. Foreign investment in the current government tenure would recognize this strategic importance and help improve maritime cooperation. Free Trade Agreements with India and other regional and global players, already existing internal infrastructure, one of the best available work forces in ICT, services and tourism sector and a 6.4% growth rate in January 2015[9] make Sri Lanka a very attractive opportunity for international investments. The lack of trust between India, Pakistan and Bangladesh leaves South Asia politically divided. Sri Lanka is the only politically neutral regime with strong relationships with India, Pakistan and other neighbours.

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[1]  Sergei DeSilva-Ranasinghe, ‘Why the Indian Ocean Matters’,The Diplomat. Available from: <http://thediplomat.com/2011/03/why-the-indian-ocean-matters/>. March 02, 2011.

[2]  Analysis, ‘Sri Lanka's Imperatives and Challenges ’,Stratfor. Available from: <www.stratfor.com/analysis/sri-lankas-imperatives-and-challenges>. August 26, 2013.

[3]  Chinese plans to spend around 50 Billion USD in the next decade and already invest heavily in strategic infrastructure projects in Sri Lanka in securing their access to the Indian Ocean.

[4]  Two Japanese naval ships, "Akizuki" and "Sawagiri", arrived at the Port of Colombo on a goodwill and supply visit on 19^th July 2015.

[5] Trincomalee harbour is the second best natural harbour in the world and the available water and land area is about 10 times as much as the Port of Colombo. Trincomalee was tentatively identified to cater for bulk and break bulk cargo and port related industrial activities including heavy industries, tourism and agriculture etc.

[6]  (1) Sri Lanka is strategically situated (2) it is ideally situated to be a major communication center, and (3) It has Trincomalee, described by the British Admiral Horatio Nelson as "the finest harbour in the world". Trincomalee is well positioned and equipped to secure Bay of Bengal for any interested party with a strategic need and access. The natural habour has deep inner port and suit well in harbouring Navel fleets including nuclear submarines and this is why British Sri Lanka defense pack in 1947 focused on keeping the habour as a British base to protect its interests in the far east.

[7]  Shannon Tiezzi, ‘Where Is China's Silk Road Actually Going?’ The Diplomat. Available from: <http://thediplomat.com/2015/03/where-is-chinas-silk-road-actually-going/>. March 30, 2015. 

[8]  Pivot to Asia was later was renamed to “re-balancing” since the word “pivot” shows impermanence and rather implies that there has been a sudden shift in American strategic thinking while before that the region was not too important for the country.

[9]  8.2% and 6.3% growth rate was recorded for the same period of time in 2014 and 2013 respectively.

Prediction: Syrian end game for Russia

DRAFT: Prediction: Syrian end game for Russia

Many pundits are talking about what Russia want out of Syria and what should the self proclaimed global pioneers of Human right defenders in the west should do to save the last great hope of global stability, (west claim that their bombs bring democracy and social justice and do not kill any civilians, any civilians killed because they were in the wrong place,..). I think it’s my time for me to join the bandwagon and say what I think would happen. 

Here is what I think would happen with Russian intervention,

1.       Russia and pro Syrian Government forces would try their best to neutralize any opposition forces posing immediate threats to their urban and military centers holding their political grip.

a.       This would be done so that they can have a breathing space for their battle fatigue security personnel, (para-military and national army).

b.      To prevent major urban and military centers from falling to any opposition groups including Islamist terrorist groups.

c.       To simplify the battle front and strengthen areas under Government control to support the operations against armed groups including Islamist terrorist groups.

d.      To free up much needed troops and fire power to support their operations to achieve bigger military objectives in the future.

e.      Not to allow armed opposition group to operate in any consistent way in Syrian territory so that international players who do not support Syrian Government but has a agenda against ISIS has no foot hall in Syria against ISIS outside Syrian Government. 

2.       Russian and Syrian air power would slowly take out major logistical centers allowing them to monitor the behaviors of groups like ISIS and Al Nusra. 

a.       To keep ISIS and Al Nusra in a relatively stabilized front giving breathing space for groups forces of Syrian Government and its allies to neutralize any other military threat.

b.      To create an argument for international audience to support the narrative of the pro Russian intervention agenda to easily justify their operations against CIA trained military assets that are immediate threats to the Syrian Government.

3.       A stronger Military force with joint operations command with large number of battle hardened troops that are supported by a significant portion of the Syrian population living in Syrian territories would carry out a systematic attack on bigger military and political threats like ISIS and Al Nusra. 

a.       International community and other parties to the Syrian conflict would be given two simple choices, Syrian Government or Total destruction of Middle East makeup by terrorist Caliph in Syria and Iraq.

b.      The joint air power would have absolute air superiority over battle areas and will be able to deny the ability to operate freely on the ground without a substantial risk of being detected. This deny of movement would be a huge problem for operational mobility for any enemy forces.

c.       Syrian Government would be in an better position to carry out calculated military operations to further boost the morale of the battle tired government and para-military forces.

d.      To gain the confidence of the local Syrian population as the alternative to Islamist rule over Syria.

e.      To gain the confidence of the certain elements of the international community as the alternative to Islamist rule over Syria.

f.        Significant fire power, both ground and Air-Navel would be made available to open up multiple fronts against ISIS and Al Nusra and associated terrorists pushing them to fight the pro Syrian Government forces as a conventional military power draining their resources including Human power and logistical flexibility.

I personally don’t know how this would be playing out, and would be interesting to see what other people think of this. As a person who has substantial grass root level understanding how wars are fought, I think it’s too early to say how exactly things would happen and what would be the result, but points given above covers many things to come.