DRAFT: Prediction: Syrian end game for Russia
Many pundits are talking about what Russia want out of Syria
and what should the self proclaimed global pioneers of Human right defenders in
the west should do to save the last great hope of global stability, (west claim
that their bombs bring democracy and social justice and do not kill any
civilians, any civilians killed because they were in the wrong place,..). I
think it’s my time for me to join the bandwagon and say what I think would
happen.
Here is what I think would happen with Russian intervention,
1.
Russia and pro Syrian Government forces would
try their best to neutralize any opposition forces posing immediate threats to
their urban and military centers holding their political grip.
a.
This would be done so that they can have a
breathing space for their battle fatigue security personnel, (para-military and
national army).
b.
To prevent major urban and military centers from
falling to any opposition groups including Islamist terrorist groups.
c.
To simplify the battle front and strengthen areas
under Government control to support the operations against armed groups
including Islamist terrorist groups.
d.
To free up much needed troops and fire power to support
their operations to achieve bigger military objectives in the future.
e.
Not to allow armed opposition group to operate
in any consistent way in Syrian territory so that international players who do
not support Syrian Government but has a agenda against ISIS has no foot hall in
Syria against ISIS outside Syrian Government.
2.
Russian and Syrian air power would slowly take
out major logistical centers allowing them to monitor the behaviors of groups
like ISIS and Al Nusra.
a.
To keep ISIS and Al Nusra in a relatively stabilized
front giving breathing space for groups forces of Syrian Government and its
allies to neutralize any other military threat.
b.
To create an argument for international audience
to support the narrative of the pro Russian intervention agenda to easily justify
their operations against CIA trained military assets that are immediate threats
to the Syrian Government.
3.
A stronger Military force with joint operations
command with large number of battle hardened troops that are supported by a
significant portion of the Syrian population living in Syrian territories would
carry out a systematic attack on bigger military and political threats like
ISIS and Al Nusra.
a.
International community and other parties to the
Syrian conflict would be given two simple choices, Syrian Government or Total destruction
of Middle East makeup by terrorist Caliph in Syria and Iraq.
b.
The joint air power would have absolute air superiority
over battle areas and will be able to deny the ability to operate freely on the
ground without a substantial risk of being detected. This deny of movement
would be a huge problem for operational mobility for any enemy forces.
c.
Syrian Government would be in an better position
to carry out calculated military operations to further boost the morale of the
battle tired government and para-military forces.
d.
To gain the confidence of the local Syrian
population as the alternative to Islamist rule over Syria.
e.
To gain the confidence of the certain elements
of the international community as the alternative to Islamist rule over Syria.
f.
Significant fire power, both ground and
Air-Navel would be made available to open up multiple fronts against ISIS and
Al Nusra and associated terrorists pushing them to fight the pro Syrian
Government forces as a conventional military power draining their resources
including Human power and logistical flexibility.
I personally don’t know how this would be playing out, and
would be interesting to see what other people think of this. As a person who
has substantial grass root level understanding how wars are fought, I think it’s
too early to say how exactly things would happen and what would be the result,
but points given above covers many things to come.
