Prediction: Syrian end game for Russia

DRAFT: Prediction: Syrian end game for Russia

Many pundits are talking about what Russia want out of Syria and what should the self proclaimed global pioneers of Human right defenders in the west should do to save the last great hope of global stability, (west claim that their bombs bring democracy and social justice and do not kill any civilians, any civilians killed because they were in the wrong place,..). I think it’s my time for me to join the bandwagon and say what I think would happen. 

Here is what I think would happen with Russian intervention,

1.       Russia and pro Syrian Government forces would try their best to neutralize any opposition forces posing immediate threats to their urban and military centers holding their political grip.

a.       This would be done so that they can have a breathing space for their battle fatigue security personnel, (para-military and national army).

b.      To prevent major urban and military centers from falling to any opposition groups including Islamist terrorist groups.

c.       To simplify the battle front and strengthen areas under Government control to support the operations against armed groups including Islamist terrorist groups.

d.      To free up much needed troops and fire power to support their operations to achieve bigger military objectives in the future.

e.      Not to allow armed opposition group to operate in any consistent way in Syrian territory so that international players who do not support Syrian Government but has a agenda against ISIS has no foot hall in Syria against ISIS outside Syrian Government. 

2.       Russian and Syrian air power would slowly take out major logistical centers allowing them to monitor the behaviors of groups like ISIS and Al Nusra. 

a.       To keep ISIS and Al Nusra in a relatively stabilized front giving breathing space for groups forces of Syrian Government and its allies to neutralize any other military threat.

b.      To create an argument for international audience to support the narrative of the pro Russian intervention agenda to easily justify their operations against CIA trained military assets that are immediate threats to the Syrian Government.

3.       A stronger Military force with joint operations command with large number of battle hardened troops that are supported by a significant portion of the Syrian population living in Syrian territories would carry out a systematic attack on bigger military and political threats like ISIS and Al Nusra. 

a.       International community and other parties to the Syrian conflict would be given two simple choices, Syrian Government or Total destruction of Middle East makeup by terrorist Caliph in Syria and Iraq.

b.      The joint air power would have absolute air superiority over battle areas and will be able to deny the ability to operate freely on the ground without a substantial risk of being detected. This deny of movement would be a huge problem for operational mobility for any enemy forces.

c.       Syrian Government would be in an better position to carry out calculated military operations to further boost the morale of the battle tired government and para-military forces.

d.      To gain the confidence of the local Syrian population as the alternative to Islamist rule over Syria.

e.      To gain the confidence of the certain elements of the international community as the alternative to Islamist rule over Syria.

f.        Significant fire power, both ground and Air-Navel would be made available to open up multiple fronts against ISIS and Al Nusra and associated terrorists pushing them to fight the pro Syrian Government forces as a conventional military power draining their resources including Human power and logistical flexibility.

I personally don’t know how this would be playing out, and would be interesting to see what other people think of this. As a person who has substantial grass root level understanding how wars are fought, I think it’s too early to say how exactly things would happen and what would be the result, but points given above covers many things to come.